NFL straight-up picks, Week 16: Cowboys-Dolphins is a Rorschach test of flawed football (2024)

I’m not thrilled about backing Jordan Love right now, as the young starter is elbow deep in his inscrutable era. The Panthers, however, provide a wonderful get right opportunity for a team in danger of falling out of the playoff race entirely.

Green Bay’s postseason odds would drop to a mere seven percent with a loss in Charlotte — a home field most notable in 2023 for low, low ticket prices and wet empty seats. That lack of support didn’t stop Carolina from doubling its season win total last week, but beating Atlanta Falcons coach Arthur Smith and beating Packers coach Matt LaFleur are two very different tasks. Love, despite his flaws, has been significantly better than Desmond Ridder.

More importantly, this is a wonderful opportunity for the Packer defense to work things out. Green Bay just got roasted by Tommy DeVito and Baker Mayfield in consecutive weeks. Sure, that leaves the door open for Bryce Young to surprise us but he helms a Panther offense that’s scored more than 13 points just once since Halloween. Carolina can probably keep things close against a flawed opponent, bu this is a chance for LaFleur, Love and that embattled defense to work out their frustrations on an overmatched foe.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 10-5 (.667)

The moveable object vs. the redirectable force. Two teams with gaudy records we don’t quite trust yet square off in South Florida. The Cowboys have two wins over teams currently in the playoff picture. Both were at home and one was against a Los Angeles Rams team in the middle of a 2-6 stretch.

This is only an accomplishment when viewed through the lens of the Dolphins, who have no such victories. The only win they’ve got over a team better than 6-8 came against the Denver Broncos, who were in the midst of a 1-5 start at the time. If these were high school transcripts both Mike McDaniel and Mike McCarthy would be headed to junior college.

Instead, each are 10-win teams with a shot to earn the top seeds in their respective conferences. Week 16 will tell us a lot about how much we can rely on either come the postseason. There are myriad reasons to doubt either — particularly given the concerning health of Tua Tagovailoa’s offensive line and Tyreek Hill’s bad ankle.

But Dallas is 2-4 on the road this year and those wins came against the New York Giants and Los Angeles Chargers. The Cowboys are coming off a 31-10 stomping in western New York that saw the Buffalo Bills recharge their playoff hopes by stealing Dak Prescott’s lightning. And in a game where each team has quarterbacks capable of greatness, a weak resume and some fatal flaws… give me the home team?

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 14-1 (.933)

Talking myself into the Cowboys AND the Texans helped me salvage a split in this section last week. Now I charge into the breach after considering two modest upsets on my 16-game slate; the Indianapolis Colts in Atlanta and the Jacksonville Jaguars in Tampa Bay.

It’s not that I believe in either the Jaguars or Colts all that much, to be honest. It’s just that I think so little of the NFC South. The league’s weakest division brings little to fear, even after Tampa rolled into Wisconsin last week and wiped up a good Packers team. They have the capacity to do the same vs. Jacksonville, especially given the Jags’ penchant for hoisting themselves up just high enough to make any slip and fall fatal.

The number of ways the Jaguars offense has actively hurt itself this year is honestly difficult to comprehend.

31st in EPA lost on drops
30th in EPA lost on fumbles
31st in EPA lost on WR/TE screens
30th in EPA gained on run plays

Trying to stay afloat with cement shoes on.

— Robert Mays (@robertmays) December 20, 2023

But the Jags seem unlikely to have a full strength Trevor Lawrence and, ultimately, this led me to pick against them.

Instead, I’m going to officially pick against the Falcons to pit their capacity to disappoint bettors against their capacity to disappoint their own fans. Atlanta desperately needs a win to remain in playoff contention. But so do the Colts, who’ll be starting the better journeyman backup quarterback in Week 16 (Gardner Minshew vs. Taylor Heinicke). That, plus Arthur Smith’s continued crumbling under even the softest expectations, has me on Indianapolis Sunday.

(I am also picking Mason Rudolph and the Steelers to beat the Bengals. Maybe it’s because I believe the Pittsburgh defense can derail Jake Browning. Or perhaps it is because I am a doofus.)

Last week: 1-1 (.500)
Season to date: 12-4 (.750)